Canada seeks to strengthen trade ties with China

On April 15, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by International Herald Leader on Canadian International Trade Minister Stockwell's recent trip to China.

He noted that Canada is eager to grow business with its second largest trading partner in part because of the dwindling buying power of its largest trading partner, the U.S.. "In order to have commodity prices and other resources prices to go up, the key factor is not the United States, but China," Dr. Jiang said, "China is the manufacturing powerhouse of the world."

You can read the news report in Chinese, or in English.

The newly released 2009 provincial budget

On April 8, 2009, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by OMNI TV Edmonton on the newly released provincial budget, its implications for the provincial economy, the education sector and the energy sector.

The Latest Chinese Acquisition of Oil Sands in Alberta

April 2, 2009, Dr. Jiang was quoted by the Financial Post on the latest Chinese acquisition of oil sands in Alberta.

You can read the article here.

The First Summit between Obama and Hu during the G20

April 2, 2009, Dr. Jiang was quoted by Xinhua News Agency, in both Chinese and English, on the G20 global leaders meeting in London, and the significance of the first summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao.

For the English article, please click here.

For the Chinese article, please click here.

The Impact of Global Oil Price Fluctuations on China

April 1, 2009, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by CCTV 9 Dialogue, a 30 minute discussion on the impact of global oil price fluctuations with a focus on China, the United States and China-US relations.

The Rising Impact of China in the Global Economy

March 31, 2009, Dr. Jiang was quoted by an article in the Globe and Mail, on the rising impact of China in the global economy and the U.S.-China G2 summit during the G20 summit in London.

You can read the article here.

Chinese Economic Situation and the New Stimulus Packages

March 14, 2009, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by CBC TV Newsworld live, on the current Chinese economic situation, the ongoing annual People's Congress and the possible new stimulus packages by the Chinese government to further boost the Chinese economy.

China's Latest Policies on Tibet

March 10, 2009, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by CBC TV Newsworld live, on the one year anniversary of the Tibetan riots, the 50 year anniversary of the exile of the Dalai Lama and the Chinese government's latest policies on Tibet.

The Current State of Canada-China Relations

March 5, 2009, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by CBC Radio International Chinese broadcasting, on the current state of Canada-China relations and the prospects of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's visit to China.

Road to Riches Ends for 20 Million Chinese Poor

February 20, 2009, Dr. Jiang was quoted by CNN on China's gloomy labor market for the 20 million migrant workers during the recent economic slowdown.

To read the article, please click here.

My Exclusive Interview with Duowei News Agency on U.S. President Obama's First Overseas Visit to Canada

February 18, 2009, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by Duowei News Agency on U.S. President Obama's first overseas visit to Canada. In the article, he noted that the visit is largely symbolic, along with some real business to be discussed.

To read the entire article in Chinese, please click here.

Duowei News Agency is owned by Chinese Media Net Inc. (CMN), an ethnic media group which operates in the U.S., Canada and Hong Kong.

Beijing's Responses to Falling Oil Prices

February 4, 2009, Dr. Jiang was invited to write an article for China Brief, an online journal published by the Jamestown Foundation, on the Chinese government's recent energy security policy responding to falling oil prices and world financial crisis.

Please read the article here.

Dr. Jiang is a regular contributor to the China Brief, for his previously published articles, please click here.

China’s Towering Tests

Edmonton Journal
January 31, 2009
By: Wenran Jiang

After a dramatic 2008, the Year of the Ox could bring soul-searching and unrest

As China enters the "Year of the Ox," there is much to reflect on from the past year and even more to speculate about the coming year.

2008 began with snowstorms that paralyzed most of central and southern China's transport system, interrupting lives and causing severe material damage. Then came the riots in Tibet, which caught the government off guard, followed by embarrassing protests over China's Olympic torch relay in several Western and Asian countries.

As Chinese were wondering why 2008, a year of supposed good fortune marked by the lucky number eight, had started with so much misfortune, an earthquake struck Sichuan province, killing 80,000 people and leaving millions homeless. Emerging more united from this tragedy, the country welcomed the world to the long-anticipated Olympics, which were remarkably successful, but were soon superseded by the tainted-dairy-product scandal in which many babies became ill, and some died.

In contrast to last year, when the rush home for the lunar New Year celebration was hampered by freak storms, this year millions of migrant workers have already returned to their rural homes. Many will be staying there, because the global economic downturn has hit China hard, costing them their jobs. According to the latest numbers, the growth rates of both China's industrial output and GDP have declined sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008, and more than 10 million migrant workers have lost their jobs.

A year of searing milestones Littered with a host of extremely sensitive anniversaries, 2009 could prove even more dramatic and unpredictable than 2008.

Fast approaching is not only the March anniversary of last year's disturbances in Tibet, but also the 50th anniversary of Tibetan unrest in 1959 that led to the exile of the Dalai Lama and his supporters.

Since the riots last spring, China's government has taken many proactive measures, even adopting a "Serf Liberation Day," to defend its record in Tibet of the past 50 years, while continuing to talk with the Dalai Lama's representatives. But it has also implemented heavy-handed police and military controls.

Then comes the 20th anniversary of the June 4 crackdown on the Tiananmen Square student demonstrations. Calls to re-evaluate the official response began when President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao came to power seven years ago. But recently, the pressure has intensified, especially with the publication of "Charter 08," a manifesto signed by hundreds of Chinese intellectuals, journalists, lawyers, and ordinary citizens, criticizing the government's rights record and demanding more democratic reform, press freedom, governmental transparency, and societal openness.

Although neither Hu nor Wen were directly involved in the crackdown, they nonetheless must tread carefully. Doing everything possible to avoid a repeat of the 1989 scenario may well be the Communist Party leadership's top priority in 2009. And, given the economic slowdown, widening income disparity, rising unemployment, and growing popular discontent over corruption, China's leaders will have their hands full.

Of course, the inspiration for almost every political reform movement in China is the May 4th Movement of 1919, when Chinese students protested against a weak and corrupt government and called for China to strengthen itself by adopting two key Western ideals: democracy and science. As the 90th anniversary approaches, China has made great strides in science, but still has a long way to go in terms of democracy.

Less known but no less sensitive is the 10th anniversary of the government's ban on Falun Gong, an organization of self-claimed religious and meditation practitioners that has challenged the Communist Party's legitimacy. Though largely discredited inside the country, this militant movement still has a following around the world, and further protests may come at any time and in unpredictable forms.

While some of the plethora of anniversaries that China's leaders must confront are potentially very destabilizing, several have, and will, work in their favour. For example, the 30th anniversary of China's reform movement and the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States has been a much-celebrated event this January.

Republic will be 60 years old More importantly, October will mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Peoples' Republic of China, an occasion that the Party will commemorate in grand style. After all, the Middle Kingdom has re-emerged as the world's third-largest economy (having recently replaced Germany), sent astronauts into space, dispatched advanced naval destroyers to the Horn of Africa, and become the largest holder of U.S. foreign debt. China will want to flex its muscles and proclaim to the world that the Party has delivered the goods to its people, while making the country strong and prosperous.

As the worst recession since the 1930s continues, both the American and Chinese economies are bound to suffer further setbacks. There is no guarantee that protectionist and xenophobic sentiment in America will not hit China-U.S. relations, or that the economic downturn will not fuel new unrest in China.

Already, the new U.S. treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, has accused China of "manipulating its currencies," a term that was not used by the former Bush administration and that may have serious consequences for U.S.-China trade relations. During his campaign, Barack Obama used the same language. And Chinese officials have hit back at the new U.S. administration's criticism.

There is also a gathering storm over who is to blame for the U.S. and worldwide financial crisis. Some have argued it was the Chinese continuous purchasing of U.S. treasury bounds and the influx of cheap Chinese goods over the years that are responsible for the subprime mortgage crisis and the U.S. recession, a position rejected by Beijing.

So far it is not that clear how the Obama administration is going to handle its China policy. But one thing is clear: without further Chinese commitment to buy a large amount of U.S.-issued debt, Obama will not be able to pay for his administration's massive stimulus package. Nor will China be overly accommodating to foreign demands when its own domestic situation is turning so volatile.

The world should not misjudge the effect of such disputes and troubles on China. Nor should it forget China's fierce display of nationalism in response to Western protests of the Olympic torch relay, the extraordinary patriotism that swept the country in response to the Sichuan earthquake, and the national pride evinced by the Olympic Games.

But in 2009, it would be a demonstration of courage if China's leadership also takes note of the need to continue assuring the world of its commitment to a "peaceful rise," and to do so by boldly addressing some of the unresolved issues this year's anniversaries will highlight.

the Chinese Economy and More

January 29, 2009, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by CBC Radio Edmonton, Hop Spot Columnist live, on the Chinese economy and the many uncertain anniversary events in China in the year of 2009.

Social Costs of China's Prosperity

by Wenran Jiang
(Jan 23, 2006)
The Standard

China continues to impress the world with its high GDP growth, staggering trading volumes and surging consumption appetite. Most figures out of Beijing look remarkable, indicating a momentum that the Middle Kingdom is reclaiming its great power status at a speed faster than most forecasts.

Yet evidence is mounting that the high-GDP-centered development paradigm is too costly to sustain: rural, urban and environment-related protest movements are moving from being localized and isolated events to becoming a widespread and serious social crisis.

Some may point to Beijing's newly revised GDP figures as proof of China's successful modernization: its national strength is now 17 percent more than previously thought, allowing China to leap over Italy, France and Britain to become the fourth largest economy in the world; its economic structure seems to be more balanced with a much bigger service industry than previously reported; and China's foreign trade grew by nearly a quarter last year while its foreign reserves tripled.

Yet other recently released numbers, which have received less coverage, indicate a troublesome trend.
As revealed by the China Human Development Report 2005, regional disparities are threatening the country's growth potential, and the widening urban-rural income distribution gap has reached a dangerous level.

Compiled by a group of Chinese researchers for the United Nations Development Program, the report demonstrates that in all major categories of the human development index - from per capita income to life expectancy to literacy rate - regional imbalances are severe and growing.

It concludes that China's Gini coefficient, a measurement of a country's income inequality, has increased by more than 50 percent in the past 20 years, with urban dwellers earning nearly four times that of rural residents.

At 0.46, the mainland's Gini coefficient is lower than in some Latin American and African countries, but its urban-rural income inequality is perhaps the highest in the world.

The new GDP numbers only make the inequality worse, and when systemic factors biased against the rural population are included, the urban-rural income ratio is as high as six to one.

The UNDP report also shows that the inland regions lag behind in education, especially among the female population.

Only two decades ago, China was one of the most equal societies on earth. Today, it ranks 90th in the UNDP's 131-nation human development index.

It is ironic that while 250 million people have been lifted out of poverty in record time - a proud achievement that no one denies - the mainland is also leading the world in creating one of the most unequal societies in history.

The Chinese government has repeatedly told the world that it needs social stability to develop its economy, and Beijing claims to value economic and social rights more than political rights.

The question is whether China's traditional political control plus the new economic and social exclusion of the majority of its population can be accepted as a model of development by those who are now excluded from China's growing prosperity.

Newly released reports from the central government cite 87,000 incidents of public order disturbances last year, up 6.6 percent from the 74,000 figure in 2004; the number of events that interfered with government functions jumped 19 percent, while protests seen as disturbing social order grew by 13 percent in 2005.

Some say that the figures are not surprising and that these may not even be new developments: they show that Beijing now allows more reporting of these protests that have existed for a long time.

Beijing even puts its spin on reports of social disorder, claiming that it is now more democratic by allowing the protests to occur and then informing the public about them.

Despite the differences in assessment, the emerging consensus is that various grassroots protests are increasing in numbers, are better organized, and often turn violent when local officials are no longer seen as working to solve ordinary people's legitimate grievances.

Again, the UNDP survey of Chinese public perception of income distribution gaps reveals popular demand for social justice and potential support for radical actions: more than 80 percent of those surveyed believe that China's current income distribution is either not so equitable or very inequitable.

Meanwhile, a recent global study by the Pew Global Attitude Project seems to contradict such pessimism.

Around 72 percent of Chinese, the highest among 16 countries polled, expressed satisfaction with national conditions. Although the survey acknowledges that the sample is disproportionately urban and is not representative of the entire country, it does convey one important message that the pollsters failed to recognize: mainlanders have extremely high expectations about benefiting from the country's ongoing economic expansion; if such high expectations are not met in the near future, their frustrations may turn to demands for equity and social justice.

Between the 1950s and 1970s, most mainlanders were very poor, but relatively equal; thus social protests were rare and the Chinese Communist Party asserted control with little concern for large-scale grassroots unrest.

Today's China, after more than two decades of reform, is much more prosperous but, at the same time, a very unequal society.

Historical experiences show that when a country is embarking on rapid economic growth, social mobility accelerates and people's expectations for their own share of the prosperity increase. Yet, at the same time, income distribution gaps widen and, with a few exceptions, only a small portion of the population enjoys the benefits of the country's modernization drive.

Such a paradoxical process often results in rising resentment among the populace and leads to large-scale protests for a more equitable distribution of wealth.

China today is at such a crossroads of unprecedented prosperity, high, unmet expectations, and growing frustrations with perceived social injustice.

The current leadership, headed by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, is keenly aware of the growing disparity and its serious consequences. After years of promoting Deng Xiaoping's famous call - to get rich is glorious - the harmonious society seems to have become a central pillar of the Hu-Wen approach to easing China's social tensions.

Despite a number of measures - ranging from investment in remote regions to elimination of agricultural taxes to campaigns against corruption - social unrest is on the rise. With some of the recent bloody confrontations between peasants and local authorities, many wonder if some kind of a tipping point for a social crisis will arrive soon.

Revolutionary change, most evident in Russia in 1917, is precipitated by three conditions: first, the masses can no longer be governed; second, the ruling elites can no longer govern; and third, the social forces are fully mobilized under the leadership of a revolutionary party to overthrow the existing regime. By these standards, China is nowhere close to the tipping point.

Yet it would be a profound mistake to take comfort from such abstract conclusions. The first two conditions have been progressively deteriorating in recent years: widespread social protests are increasing; and the corruption of government and party officials, and the plight of ordinary citizens at the hands of abusive local officials, have weakened the governance structure.

A deadly combination of these two elements could lead to a widespread belief that the majority of the population is not left behind because of its own weakness in competing with others for a better life; rather, it is the corrupt officials and the privileged few who have enriched themselves through exploitation and at the expense of the masses.

This perception may foster pressures that fundamentally reconfigure the existing social, economic, and political order.

This process may well be accelerated if the inevitable economic slowdown in the coming years and natural, environmental and other human-made disasters occur simultaneously.

An externally-imposed, alternative political mechanism is unlikely, if possible at all, given China's tightly controlled conditions. Yet a governance crisis of such magnitude is likely to trigger an internal split within the party ruling elites, with reform-oriented forces openly confronting hardliners who advocate total control by force.

The most challenging task for China and the world today is how to avoid such dangerous showdowns with reforms that effectively address the issue of income inequality, social injustice and lack of democratization.

the New US President and the Prospects of Canada-US Relations and US-China Relations

January 15, 2009, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by CBC Radio International Chinese broadcasting, on the coming new US President Barack Obama and the prospects of Canada-US relations and US-China relations.

Chinese Inroads in DR Congo: A Chinese "Marshall Plan" or Business?

January 12, 2009, Dr. Jiang contributed an article on China Brief with respect to China's growing presence in Democratic Republic of Congo, and particularly, a 9 billion dollar mining and infrastructure construction deal entered into between state-owned Chinese investors and the government of Democratic Republic of Congo.

Read the article here.

The same article is also available on Asia Times Online here.

CBC Radio Interview on Chinese economy

The fact that China has come to dominate an industry that was banned 30 years ago shows just how much the country has changed. Three decades ago -- under Deng Xiao Ping -- China changed gears radically and joined the world market.

Today, it's a manufacturing juggernaut and 40 per cent of the country's wealth comes from exports. But with the global economy tanking, many of China's best customers don't look like they'll be buying much in 2009. That suggests tough times ahead for China.

To listen to the audio clip, please click here, and on that webpage, turn on the build-in Adobe flash player "Listen to Part Two".

ID card proponents push for single system

On December 12, 2008, Dr. Jiang was quoted by Ontarion newspaper Business Edge on a proposal calling for the creation of a single identification-card system that can be used by frequent business travellers in both North America and Asia.

He noted that this new system would be a welcome step for travellers as it could reduce the stress associated with customs clearance. To read the story, click here.

Appointment of Hillary Clinton and its potential impact on US-China relations

On December 2, 2008, Dr. Jiang was interviewed by BBC World Report Chinese Service on the implications of the appointment of Hillary Clinton as the US Secretary of State in the Obama administration and its potential impact on US-China relations.